In the moments after an Iranian missile hit a US base in Qatar, Donald Trump’s phone lit up with a text confirming a fragile ceasefire. What followed was a paradoxical scene: a 12-day Middle East war was put on pause, yet its ripples shook global markets, exposed military vulnerabilities, and laid bare tensions that promise to resurface.
š£ 1. The Ceasefire and Its Drama
A Bunker Busterās Failure: The much-touted “bunker-busting” GBU-57 bombs failed to penetrate Iran’s Fordow nuclear site. Satellite images revealed only shallow craters in 90 meters of granite, unable to breach 8 meters of concrete and 2 meters of steel. The US Defense Intelligence Agency admits Iranās core nuclear facilities remain intact.
Calculated Retaliation: In an unprecedented move, Iran launched 19 missiles towards Al Udeid base, notifying the US via Qatar. Only one missile landed harmlessly, ensuring zero casualties ā an intentional, symbolic “revenge” matching the number of US bombs.
Fragile Peace: Despite a “comprehensive ceasefire” announced by Trump, within 24 hours both sides exchanged accusations and launched further attacks, underscoring the tenuous nature of peace.
š 2. Capital Unleashed: Market Whiplash
Oil and Gold Plunge: Brent crude sank 7% to $68, and NYMEX dropped to $64.37, erasing war-induced gains. Gold fell 1.67% to $3,322 per ounce.
Wall Street Rejoices: The Nasdaq surged 1.43%; the S&P 500 gained 1.11%; the Dow rose 1.19%. Chip giants led the rally: Broadcom gained nearly 4%, Nvidia rose 2.5%, and New Oriental surged 13%.
A-Share Boom: The Shanghai Composite regained 3,400 points (+1.15%), and the ChiNext Index surged 2.3%. Electric vehicle and solid-state battery stocks surged, with Zhejiang Shibao rising 30.7%.
The Fedās Tightrope: Powellās testimony tempered market exuberance by hinting at cautious rate policies. Yet Trump pressed for aggressive cuts, intensifying the balancing act.
šØš³ 3. Chinaās Growth Engine Revs Up
Six ministries announced 19 policies and a Ā„500 billion consumer and eldercare loan initiative to boost domestic consumption and support industries like sports, tourism, and education. The campaign includes incentives for appliance and car trade-ins, with Guangdong leading the charge.
Grand Parade Plans: A major parade for the 80th anniversary of victory in World War II will feature intelligent combat units and honor Nationalist war veterans, underscoring unity and heritage.
ā” 4. AI Disruption and Silicon Sell-offs
AI College Admissions: In a record-breaking day, over 10 million students used Baiduās AI service for personalized college recommendations. This trend aims to bridge the gap between resources and opportunities in education.
NVIDIAās Sell-Off: CEO Jensen Huang announced a sale of $873 million worth of company stock, igniting speculation about a market top for AI chips despite a 69% revenue gain in Q1.
Local AI Surge: Guangzhou aims for 90% L2+ autonomous vehicles by 2027 and is nurturing AI giants like DeepSeek, while Zhengzhou aims to foster 100 high-growth AI firms by year-end.
š 5. Global Disruption: Quantum Leaps and Trade Wars
Tech and Military Developments: The UK invested Ā£500 million in quantum computing and acquired 12 F-35A fighter jets. Japan tested its first long-range 88-type missile, sparking public outcry. The EU announced ā¬95 billion in tariffs against the US, intensifying economic tensions.
Legislation Battles: The US Senate announced a vote on the “Beautiful Act” aimed at regulating stablecoins to mitigate US debt pressures. The Treasury predicts the stablecoin market will grow to $3.7 trillion by 2030.
From the craters of the Qatari desert to the sharp reversals on A-share markets, this era of fragile peace is defined by paradox. As Powell fends off rate cut demands, and as Iranian engineers secure their centrifuges, global tensions linger ā a delicate balance before the next storm.
History is shaped in moments like these: every second of a tentative ceasefire a prelude to future conflicts and breakthroughs.
